DES MOINES, Iowa — It will be a stormy day in Central Iowa from dawn and again at dusk. We are under a slight risk of severe storms for the entire state and there is an enhanced risk of storms for the southwest quadrant of the state today. An enhanced risk means there is the potential for numerous severe storms that may produce large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
We have a couple of complexes of thunderstorms moving in early this morning that developed late last night in western Nebraska and central Kansas. These storms will rumble through Central Iowa around 5 AM with the second batch arriving through 7 AM. This will come with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and possibly some hail. The storms will clear east of Central Iowa between 10 and 11 AM.
We will have some dry time and possibly some breaks in the clouds between 11 AM and mid-afternoon. This will lead to some destabilization of the atmosphere an environment ripe to support more severe storms late in the day.
A low pressure center and extending warm front will lift into southwest Iowa by mid to late afternoon. Storms will fire along this point. These storms may rapidly become severe and some storms may begin to rotate. Tornadoes will be possible in a brief window from late afternoon through early evening in southwest Iowa to the I-35 line and possibly near the Des Moines Metro. The storms look to coalesce into a complex of storms that could produce damaging straight line winds as they continue moving across southeast Iowa later in the night.
Heavy rain will continue through the evening and past midnight, so flash flooding will remain a problem especially across Southern Iowa where the saturated land cannot handle much more.
The weather will be calmer on Wednesday and Thursday but a few isolated showers are possible both days.