World Supply and Demand Estimates Report Released


Supply and Demand

The World Supply and Demand Estimates report from the U-S Department of Agriculture is out.   The US feed-grain outlook for 2021 to 2022 is for more production and domestic use but lower exports and increased ending stocks.

The corn crop is projected at 15 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield. Yield projections are 178-and-a-half bushels per acre with beginning stocks down sharply from a year ago. Total corn use is expected to decline a bit, while exports are down 325 million bushels with Ukraine and Russia becoming more competitive.

The outlook for U-S soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush and higher ending stocks compared to last year. The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels – up 270 million from last year – with supplies projected down 3%. US soybean exports are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels down 205 million.

A Look at the Markets

Market analyst Dan Hueber has the post report markets:

When you look at the domestic numbers there weren’t any major shocks per say other than maybe in the beans it didn’t’ lower the ending stocks, corn it did lower than expected, I think that’s something to keep in perspective, they’re trimming nearly 100 million bushels down from last month. But here’s the most negative reaction. So just a little disappointment, so I think the further you dig in the numbers, they’re making some assumptions but I think there’s a lot of belief we’re going to see a higher corn acreage number. Livestock market on the plus side today, cattle up 50 points. Really been climbing nicely, we’ve closed higher 5-6 days at this point. I think it’s mainly a technical correction. Hogs bounced back, june hogs up 80 this morning, been defensive over the last couple days, Junes did slip down and go into the gap area where we gapped higher a couple weeks ago but seems to have found some support at that point. 

Trade Talk

  Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley wants more details on a Biden trade proposal. It’s been about two months since Trade Representative Katherine Tai was confirmed. Grassley wants more information on the Build Back Better plan.  With commodity prices soaring and trade a key economic opportunity after the pandemic, he wants answers on trade priorities – adding he hasn’t seen any policy update on pending trade talks. “There’s been no update on these agreements in the Biden trade policy agenda. I have confidence in Ambassador Tai’s ability to negotiate on behalf of Iowa farmers and manufacturers, and I hope she will be given enough power by the president to negotiate on their behalf,” Grassley said.

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