African swine fever (ASF) could create a big dent in the global hog supply.
Production losses could be bigger than thought according to a report from Rabobank. They think China’s pork losses could reach between 25 and 30 percent, amounting between 150 to 200 million hogs, which is 30 percent more than U.S production and nearly all of what Europe produces.
Iowa is the nation’s largest hog producer and is on track to only produce 23.5 million hogs this year.
ASF has also spread to Vietnam, with production losses expected to be near 10 percent.
Rabobank says there will be challenges and opportunities for the livestock industry. Concluding China will likely try to move to other proteins, like beef or chicken, resulting in higher global livestock prices.
But while there is good potential, trade war difficulties remain with large Chinese tariffs on U.S. agriculture production.