Grain report has bad news for corn and soybean stocks

Agribusiness

Grain report released

A major grain report is out showing fewer corn and bean stocks from last year. According to the Quarterly Grain Stocks report out at the end of the September from the UUSDA, old crop corn stored in all positions was 1.24 billion bushels, down 36% from the year before.

  Based on end-of-the-year estimates, the U-S-D-A revised that number down 71 million bushels from the previous estimate as well as revising the area planted to 90.7 million acres. In beans, old crop stored in all positions was 256 million bushels, down 51% from the year before.

  Based on its end-of-year estimates that was revised 80.8 million bushels from the last estimate, with planted area revised to 83.4 million acres. The Iowa grain stocks report shows corn stored in all positions was 245 million bushels, down 32% from the year before.

USDA monthly price report

  The U-S-D-A also released Iowa’s monthly prices report..

  Average prices farmers sold corn in August was six dollars 38 cents a bushel.. sixteen cents above the July price.. and three dollars 30 cents above August of 2020..

  Average soybeans sold in Iowa for 13 dollars 70 cents a bushel.. 70 cents below the July price but five dollars above the 2020 price..

A look at the markets

Market analyst Alan Brugler has the week recap:

“Well the corn market in particular was rallying right up until the USDA report came out on Thursday, the trade had convinced itself that most of the September grain stocks reports in the last half a dozen years had all been bullish so let’s buy it ahead of time and get in on the ride. Well USDA gave us a bearish report. They did cut last year’s corn production, there had been some thinking in the trade that some areas were a lot more deficient on corn than what USDA was showing, they were right. but on the other hand, they found more inventory in other places. On the soybean side it was definitely a bearish report. They raised old corp production more than 80 million bushels they basically were forced to do that because if on paper it say you have no beans but you have beans, then obviously there were some beans you didn’t know about. Cattle futures were under pressure all week, technical, mostly technical selling there’s a 2/3rds speedline that was broken which said you needed to go back and retest the 120 dollar on the October futures. Cash really hasn’t moved much. We have seen change int he spreads between the north and the south. USDA confirmed not only do we have fewer hogs out there but farrowing intentions are still only running 97-98 percent of a year ago meaning, hog producers are not expecting to ramp up, even if prices are in the 80s and 90s here from fairly attractive historically.”

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